will have a tough time getting their heads around this notion but we
are getting a reformed EU. It will be a very detailed, very major change
to the make up of the EU. It will be an unprecedented admission on the
part of the EU that there are two classes of EU membership.
EU is setting the stage for what will be a massive overhaul of what it
is and how it will work. It will have huge ramifications. We are getting
a two speed Europe. What this means is that the eurozone EU will be
form rules and treaties of its own - without he need to secure
ratification from all EU member states.
In that two speed EU the inner
tier can go ahead with "ever closer union" without having to consult us - and we will have no
say. As the EU stands presently we are the brake on "ever closer union"
- but once this goes through, we're out on the edges and still on the leash.
with our media so incapable of imagining or even considering that it
impacts elsewhere, it will be viewed and analysed only within the
context of how it applies to Britain, specifically David Cameron and
whether has secured "reforms". As far as the EU and moderate minds are
concerned, it does very much exclude us from "ever closer union".
that respect, the eurosceptics will look like they are out on their own
- having spent the whole campaign telling us that he won't get
It's true that nothing in the exact
relationship changes - we will still be subordinated by supranationalism
with the respective institutions of the EU making our laws - but there
will be sufficient enough of a sea change where the EU can convincingly
claim it is a wholly reformed entity - and Cameron will be be credited
as an instigator. We will have our "new relationship".
will not be interested in what eurosceptics think of it. He will be
selling his settlement to the moderate middle who will probably go for
it because is seems superficially like what we went to get.
will take some time for this to filter into the media and the popular
consciousness that this is what is on the agenda - but this is the deal
on the table. The will sell it as "The British Model". It has every
chance of reaching the moderate swing voters and nothing the Leave
campaigns will have to offer but the usual petulant whining about how awful the EU is.
there is a better offer on the table, the public will go for it.
Cameron has a strong hand. There is no use in going hell for leather in
attacking this just yet. Rather it is our job to make the hack-o-sphere
aware of what is happening so that they begin to discuss in. Only then
can we attack the inherent weaknesses of it. Quite obviously our strong
hand is that we lose influence over crucial top level EU decisions
because we are in the second tier - and europhile claims that we need to
be at the "heart of Europe" will be a physical impossibility.
- as we say, it does not change the master-slave relationship. We will
still be a subordinate state - with muted influence in the EU and
no say at the top tables. This is again why we must put the emphasis on
the role of global bodies.
We need to rebrand the Norway
Model because the "British Model" - a rhetorical device Cameron will use
sounds better over the airwaves. But our offer to the public is still
better than his. With the Norway Model approach we can offer more or
less the same market access - but with a voice at the top tables we
would other wise not have - and a means of shaping the rules we obey that
we do not presently enjoy.
The Remain camp have
gone large on the idea that anything along the lines of associate
membership puts us on the fringes of Europe - yet that is exactly what
we are getting from the new deal, with diminished influence and no
leverage over the EU as it pushes further toward becoming that eurozone
superstate. A veto on the world stage would replace that lost leverage
which is not just vital for us but a safety mechanism for all of Europe.
Cameron offers us fringe membership with no benefits - we can offer off
the same but better with a voice on the world stage.
we get the pitch of the message right and refrain from flinging faeces
in the direction of the EU like angry safari park baboons (mentioning no
names), then we can make a rational, progressive case for greater
global engagement while also offering a real change in our EU
relationship that Cameron simply cannot give us. Of the two available
options, it's a no brainer. Leaving is still the best bet. We
must keep in mind that our message has to reach the moderate swing
voters and will necessarily contradict and upset the hardline
eurosceptics. We must not flinch from that. They're going to vote to
leave anyway. We need a message that takes us the rest of the way and we
need to start crafting that today. We need to show that we are the ones
with the real solution to the European question and not just another weak compromise in a long line of them.