week has been a barrage of the usual fearmongering. We've had estate
agents, bankers, lawyers, accountants, American economists and Scots all
gathering in force to tell us not to leave the EU? Who could argue with
such a prestigious bunch huh?
Well, we could. It is
all contingent on what changes when we leave the EU. Every action has an
equal and opposition reaction. If there is no change, there is no
effect and so the effect rather depends on how we go about leaving the
EU. Consequently, should you ask what will happen if we leave the EU,
the only honest answer is "It depends".
If we rip up
treaties and change all our regulations then we can expect border
tariffs and port inspections and delays - and yes, Brexit done that way
most definitely will cause major disruption. Similarly mutual
recognition of qualifications would end meaning anybody coming into the
UK to do a particular job would no longer be qualified and vice versa.
It would be impossible to predict the scale of damage to the economy.
There are also the unknowns.
When you have been in a
politicial and economic union for decades, ties develop that are largely
under the radar and the only time we hear of them is when they go wrong. This is the invisible had of government that is all around us
and as a rule works quite well. A sudden death Brexit could very well
throw up all kinds of complications, delays and difficulties. All of
this could well cause gridlock at the ports and airports. That would
damage continental trade as well as our own. Looking at this scenario,
there is little to recommend Brexit at all.
And that's why
the doom-sayers are wrong in their predictions. You see, nobody, not
us, not the EU wants to see this level of disruption. Our own civil
service would not recommend such a move and no politician would dare -
or would be that stupid.
It is for this reason we will see
measured negotiations, settling upon an agreement that that looks very
much like the EEA agreement if not the actual EEA agreement.
Politically, practically, there is no other choice. Such an agreement
ensures no tariffs and unmolested supply chains. As an economic
proposition, business will struggle to notice any short to mid term
differences. So much so, that if we do leave the EU, many of these
pundits and economists will never be taken seriously in their
professional capacity ever again.
Sooner or later, we
might see a grown up Brexit debate in the public arena and if the Leave
campaign can establish that there are no major headaches for business
than all the Remain camp is left with is the peripheral minutia. At that
level, they are merely indulging in petty problematising. In that it
then comes to a balance of opportunities that mitigate the peripheral
What we have seen in place of grown up debate
this week though is a concerted effort by the BBC and others to muddy
the waters, not least with Jonty Bloom peddling outright lies about the Norway Option. It is outrageous. Nobody can now be in any doubt that the BBC is pushing a fervently pro-EU agenda.
this we pause to reflect - because we have been watching this debate
unfold since the general election. Most of our research efforts have
gone into disproving lies and fearmongering. None of our team can recall
up to press having to argue on a point of principle. There is no clash
of ideas because none are put forth by the europhiles. It's all
administrative detail and accountancy. As yet we have seen nobody defend
the grand ideal of the EU project.
The reason for this
is because an honest debate about their true designs for the UK simply
wouldn't stand the heat. There is nothing about the EU
that is evident in its own right as a reason to remain - so all we get
is threats and terrifying prognostications.
Just think about that for a moment. The EU genuinely has so little to say for itself that the only
way they can be confident of keeping us in is by gearing up the entire
establishment to scare the public into voting their way. That in itself
is reason enough to want to leave.